ISSUE #90
BEAM FROM THE BOOTH | GRAND RAPIDS FILM SOCIETY
[EDITED BY: GRIFFIN SHERIDAN & SPENCER EVERHART]
Hello and welcome back to an all-new installment of BEAM FROM THE BOOTH brought to you by GRAND RAPIDS FILM SOCIETY!
This past Thursday we released a special edition celebrating the life and career of David Lynch, and that celebration continues TONIGHT (2/24) with our TWIN PEAKS DAY 2025 event. Join us for a special evening where damn fine coffee will be served and Lynchian costumes are highly encouraged. Arrive early to mingle with fellow fans, then — at 7pm — we’re screening MULHOLLAND DRIVE (2001). Plus, be sure to arrive on time to ensure you don’t miss an exciting GRFS announcement!
And later this week, on WEDNESDAY (2/26) at 7pm, our signature FREE SOCIAL EVENT returns. Join us for another evening of discussion and comraderie at the FILM SOCIETY ROUNDTABLE.
But it isn’t just a busy week for the GRFS, it’s notable for the entire film industry with the Academy Awards looming this Sunday. With it, Anna Davis and Kyle Macciomei present their penultimate piece of awards season coverage...
ROAD TO THE OSCARS 2025
OSCARS, BUT MAKE IT A TIER LIST!
[BY: ANNA DAVIS & KYLE MACCIOMEI]
The 97th Academy Awards are right around the corner, airing Sunday, March 2nd (streaming on Hulu!) with none other than late-night legend Conan O’Brien at the helm. As a dedicated reader of this newsletter, you already know it’s your solemn duty to keep your less film-obsessed friends and family informed about this year’s Oscar race. To help you fulfill that mission—and ensure you’re both the most prepared and the most insufferable predictor at your watch party—we’ve distilled everything you need to know into one handy (and highly opinionated) tier list.
Last year’s Oscars were about as predictable as they come. Oppenheimer was a juggernaut that couldn’t be beat, picking up seven awards. The biggest controversies were Jonathan Glazer’s politically-oriented acceptance speech, and Al Pacino’s awkward Best Picture presentation.
This year’s Oscar season has been quite the opposite. Numerous controversies have disrupted campaign narratives, with the “clear frontrunner” shifting so many times (Anora, then Conclave, then Wicked, then Emilia Pérez, then The Brutalist) the Best Picture race felt like such a toss up only two weeks ago. Best Picture is still in a state of uncertainty, but then some recent precursor awards last week caused another shakeup (more on that later). Overall, this awards season has been quite the roller coaster, and we are nearing the end of our ride. For this, our last pre-ceremony update, we put together a generationally relevant and eye-catching series of tier lists for what to look out for during the Oscars. The higher a film is in the ranking, the more likely we think they are to go home with the gold.
BEST PICTURE
A-Tier: Anora was this season’s early frontrunner, immediately solidifying itself as a clear contender following its Palme d’Or win at Cannes, but its momentum was dashed after going home empty-handed at the Golden Globes. This sense of lost hope changed during Super Bowl weekend when Sean Baker’s strip club opus had a series of wins (rivaling only perhaps the Philadelphia Eagles) as Anora picked up the top prize at the Critics Choice Awards, PGAs, and DGAs.
In the past 35 years at the PGA’s, the winner for film of the year has gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar 71% of the time. The PGAs are one of the few awards that use ranked-choice voting for their top award, meaning it’s a good indicator of voter behavior at the Oscars. This year feels more likely than most to occupy an outlier status, but things are looking up for Ani and her journey to the red carpet.
B-Tier: In a time of disruption and uncertainty both nationally and in Hollywood, are voters more likely to vibe with an old-fashioned papal drama? We think there’s a chance. The BAFTAs named Conclave Best Film in a second win for the film’s director Edward Berger, who won last time for his film All Quiet on the Western Front (2022). This is an undeniable late game surge, mirroring Parasite in 2020. Parasite’s ensemble win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards indicated a huge boost for the film going into the Oscars, and SAG is one of the largest shares of the Oscar voting body. If SAG also loves Conclave, it could mean success on Oscar night. It is worth noting that Berger wasn’t recognized with a nomination for Best Director, and only six films in the Oscar’s entire history have won Best Picture without also receiving a nomination in the director category.
The Brutalist is hanging on to a frontrunner slot after weathering some AI-controversies. The strength of Adrien Brody’s position in the Best Actor race and Brady Corbet’s chances at Best Director are keeping it in the B-tier.
C-Tier: Well well well…how the turntables. Emilia Pérez was the juggernaut of the season for a time, but how the mighty have fallen! In what is perhaps the most disastrous Oscar campaign in history, Netflix's Emilia Pérez team managed to torpedo nearly all of the film’s 13 nominations.
If you haven’t been keeping up, here’s the short version: Karla Sofía Gascón’s old racist tweets resurfaced, director Jacques Audiard called Spanish a “language of developing countries and poor people,” and Zoe Saldaña is doing everything she can to sidestep the wreckage. For the full breakdown of missteps, check out this definitive Vulture article on the subject. At this point, Emilia Pérez might still snag an International Feature win, but Netflix’s dream of finally claiming Best Picture? Looking more out of reach by the day.
A Complete Unknown & Wicked fall into a similar vibe as Conclave in this race. They’re crowd pleasers with big stars. Some Oscar pundits are ranking A Complete Unknown’s chances higher than we are, saying it’s overperformance with Oscar noms is a sign it will do well in ranked-choice voting. We don’t disagree, but don’t really think it has a shot of de-throning Anora at this point. Jon M. Chu’s surprise Best Director win at the Critics Choice Awards could be an indicator of Wicked’s strength, but typically that awards body doesn’t have much sway in Oscar results.
D/E/F-Tiers: The Substance, Nickel Boys, Dune: Part Two, and I’m Still Here never really had a shot, so they’re stuck toward the bottom of their power ranking.
BEST DIRECTOR
A-Tier: The DGA’s Award for Directorial Achievement in Feature Film is typically a strong predictor of who will take home Best Director at the Oscars, with the two correlating 89% of the time. With that in mind, Sean Baker is leading the pack to take home Best Director. Baker is also potentially poised to enter a very elite class of filmmakers to win four awards in one night for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Editing. Walt Disney did it in 1954 for four different films, and Bong Joon-ho earned four in 2020 for Parasite.
Brady Corbet is nipping at Baker’s stiletto-clad heels for the win, having picked up multiple awards early in the season. The Brutalist is a showy film, ripe for director recognition, but Corbet is a young filmmaker, and his aura as a snobbish auteur could turn off some voters.
C-Tier: The other three nominees sit in the C-Tier. Do any of them have a strong chance of dethroning Baker or Corbet? Not really. But Mangold is a consistent, respected director who is certain to pick up some votes. Fargeat may get some support from horror fans and those looking to make a statement about the limited number of female nominees but not enough for a win. Audiard is holding on by a thread, trying to distance himself from Gascon and his own dumb remarks, but clearly someone in the industry enjoys Emilia Pérez, so we can’t fully count him out.
BEST ACTRESS
A-Tier: Though not a lock, Demi Moore has gone from a “popcorn actress” to the frontrunner for Best Actress following her winning Golden Globe speech. She gave yet another powerful speech for her Critics Choice Award win, and would certainly deliver yet another great moment should she step on stage at the Oscars.
B-Tier: Anora’s latest surge could bode well for Mikey Madison in this category, and her recent Best Actress win at the BAFTAs provides a real sense of hope for her campaign. Keep an eye on the SAG results from this past weekend to see where her chances lie. Her best bet though is that Best Actress tends to be an inverse of Best Actor, often rewarding young ingénues over more established actresses. Win or not, Madison has an exciting career ahead of her following this breakout performance.
C-Tier: Fernanda Torres seemingly charged to the top of the Best Actress pack following her surprise win at the Golden Globes. But her campaign was slightly derailed after a sketch of her in blackface resurfaced (the smear campaigns this season have been overwhelming). I’m Still Here remains a hit in Brazil, and is well-received internationally, so we don’t want to fully count out her chances.
Wicked is really popular, and regardless of how you may feel, Cynthia Erivo is an undeniably great Elphaba. She probably won’t edge out her competitors, and her chances for a win will likely go up if Wicked: For Good is any good.
D-Tier: Karla, you really screwed this one up girl. She went from an exciting, history-making contender to a nominee with a less-than-zero chance of winning. Given that she has skipped many of the precursor awards, she has metaphorically removed herself from this race entirely.
BEST ACTOR
S-Tier: Adrien Brody has twice been recognized by the Academy for portraying Holocaust survivors with artistic talents. The last time, he took home the Oscar. His performance is strong enough that he could win his second Best Actor statue while still holding the record as the youngest Best Actor winner for The Pianist. But to do so, he’ll have to surpass...
A-Tier: Willy Wonka himself?! A Complete Unknown has racked up a boatload of nominations across award season, but they haven’t translated into any major wins. Performances based on real people tend to do well at the Oscars, but as mentioned above, Chalamet’s youthful age of 29 complicates his shot at keeping Adrien Brody away. But Lil Timmy Tim has worked hard on the campaign trail, so maybe voters will thank him for his service.
B-Tier: Ralph Finnes is a beloved actor who has had a legendary career but no Oscar gold to prove it. A legacy win wouldn’t be entirely out of left field here. But considering how most of the precursors have gone, it’s really a two-horse race between Brody and Chalamet.
D-Tier: We’re happy Coleman Domingo and Sebastian Stan were recognized for their respective work in Sing Sing and The Apprentice. We’re looking forward to seeing what amazing fit Domingo wears on the red carpet, but we don’t expect to see either him or Stan on the stage to accept an award come Oscar night.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
S-Tier: Kieran Culkin is probably the biggest lock of the race, with little standing in his way of the Oscar. Succession stans unite!
C-Tier: The A Complete Unknown team is pushing Edward Norton pretty hard in their “for your consideration” materials. He’s undeniably good as Pete Seeger but probably can’t launch himself to the top tier by the time Oscar voting closes.
D-Tier: Again, we thank Jeremy Strong, Guy Pearce, and Yuriy Borisov for their service, but they’re just coming to the Oscars to party at this point.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
S-Tier: Saldaña is still holding on to her chances of getting the Best Supporting Actress statue. It helps that she has worked to distance herself from the drama, and she’s won pretty much every possible award this season.
A-Tier: Keep an eye out at the SAG Awards from this past weekend, which could demonstrate if voters are avoiding Emilia Pérez, and could hint at changing tides for the Oscars. Grande is continuing to campaign, and Wicked is a beloved hit. Could the Academy prefer a feel-good popstar win over Saldaña? Sure!
B-Tier: A performance featuring an up-and-coming actress singing pretty songs is always a recipe for success at the Oscar, so it’s no surprise Monica Barbaro’s turn as Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown was nominated. But she probably doesn’t have the juice to pull out a win.
Isabella Rossellini isn’t in much of Conclave, but her mom Ingrid Bergman famously won an Oscar for her 14 minutes of screen time in Murder on the Orient Express, so maybe it runs in the family! Her ties to David Lynch could also signal some sympathy votes, leading to a surprise win.
D-Tier: Felicity Jones, we hope you have a nice time attending the ceremony!
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
A-Tier: It’s currently a showdown between Baker and Corbet for Original Screenplay, and whoever takes the statue home in this category could translate to who wins Best Director. Or perhaps voters will want to honor both filmmakers and one will receive Screenplay and the other Director. We see this as a true toss-up, so this is a race to watch out for come Oscar night! If we have to pick one, we’re going Baker for Anora.
B-Tier: The Substance and A Real Pain both have tight screenplays, and we wouldn’t be entirely surprised if Jesse Eisenberg snuck in a win for A Real Pain, since it likely won’t pick up wins anywhere else.
D-Tier: September 5 kind of came and went, having a short hot streak that arrived just in time for Oscar nominations. Being a film that leans heavily on the strength of the screenplay, it makes sense it would get a nomination here, but any energy behind the film has faded in recent weeks.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A-Tier: A juicy adaptation of a pulpy novel, Conclave is well-positioned to take Best Adapted Screenplay. A win here could also be an indicator of the film’s strength in other categories throughout the night.
B-Tier: A Complete Unknown has a screenplay adapted by Jay Cocks from a non-fiction book by Elijah Wald, which was then mostly re-written by James Mangold. There are many cooks in this kitchen, and it’s a movie that relies more on its musical moments than its dialog. And yet, somehow, Unknown is still a contender here. Old Hollywood folks do really love Bob Dylan and references to their youth.
C-Tier: Nickel Boys and Sing Sing could both sneak in a win here, especially since they aren’t likely to pick up wins anywhere else. Screenplay is often a consolation prize category, showing love to good films that don’t have the strength to compete elsewhere on Oscar night.
D-Tier: We don’t see Emilia Pérez clawing its way back from this one. But if it somehow pulls off a win here, buckle up—because that would set the stage for one of the most chaotic and controversial Oscar nights in history.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
A-Tier: Despite all of the controversy surrounding Emilia Pérez, we think it will hold onto its frontrunner slot for Best International Feature. It’s certainly the most widely seen of the nominees in this category, and people like to vote for what they know.
B-Tier: Fernanda Torres’ Best Actress nomination, in combination with I’m Still Here’s box office success, gives it a real chance of unseating Emilia Pérez in this category.
C/D-Tiers: We sometimes have very low opinions of Oscar voters, and Flow being completely free of dialogue in the ‘foreign language’ category does legitimately give it a leg up over The Seed of the Sacred Fig and The Girl With the Needle. Its nomination in the Best Animated Feature category also gives it an extra boost in our tier rating. Considering International film winners now almost exclusively come from Best Picture nominees, we doubt these other three films stand a chance.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
S-Tier: With The Wild Robot, Dreamworks animation has positioned itself in the coveted ‘prestige family animated’ slot that Pixar has so thoroughly dominated the past two decades. With an animation style that still feels innovative and fresh, and a timely story of humanity’s relationship with technology and nature, The Wild Robot is looking ready to take the crown.
A-Tier: The only question is whether Flow or Inside Out 2 can overtake it. Pixar still holds a massive amount of influence here, and the sequel was the highest grossing film of 2024. Flow is the more interesting story, though, with an animation team a fraction of the size of its big studio competitors, the Latvian cat that could is currently the arthouse frontrunner in this field. Animation as a cinematic artform in the west is always trying to avoid the stigma of being ‘for kids,’ and a vote for Flow does challenge that prejudice.
C/D tier: Wallace and Gromit are an institution, and Memoir of a Snail is a gem. Neither have the steam, but claymation remains alive with and well with these filmmakers and their passions.
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Catch the Academy Awards this Sunday (3/2), and stay tuned for our final piece of awards season coverage post-ceremony!
UPCOMING EVENTS
MULHOLLAND DRIVE (Lynch, 2001)
WHAT: Join us for a special one night screening of Mulholland Drive to celebrate Twin Peaks Day and the life of the late David Lynch. A woman named Rita is left amnesiac after a car crash. She wanders the streets of Los Angeles in a daze before taking refuge in an apartment. There she is discovered a wholesome Midwestern blonde. Together, the two attempt to solve the mystery of Rita's true identity.
WHEN: Monday, February 24th, 7:00pm
WHERE: The Wealthy Theatre
WHAT: FREE SOCIAL EVENT! Join like-minded Grand Rapids film fans and filmmakers for an evening of discussion and mingling.
WHEN: Wednesday, February 26th, 7:00pm
WHERE: The Front Studio Annex — right next to The Wealthy Theatre
And so we’ve arrived at the end of another BEAM FROM THE BOOTH! We appreciate you taking the time to read it and truly hope you’ll continue to do so. Be sure to SUBSCRIBE to get each issue in your inbox every week, and stay up-to-date on all things GRFS.
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Until then, friends...
